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Inside the Tour - Danger awaits in the Vosges

Published: Jul. 16, 2009

The climbs (and descents) in the low mountains of the Vosges of northeast France have often caused unexpected problems or opportunities for major Tour contenders. Bad crashes ended the winning hopes of Raymond Poulidor and Luis Ocaña during Tours of the 1960s, while Ivan Basso crashed out of his first Tour on a stage through these wooded peaks.

On the other side of the coin, Eddy Merckx brilliantly used his first experience of the Vosges to leave all his opponents behind in a solo victory to the summit of the Ballon d’Alsace in 1969.

On Friday, the 166 survivors after 12 stages of this 96th Tour de France will no doubt experience both the highs and lows of racing through the Vosges. Stage 13 packs in one Cat. 1, two Cat. 2 and two Cat. 3 climbs in its 200km — and heavy rain and winds are forecast to hit the race late in the day.

With potentially treacherous conditions, everyone will have to be extra careful, and especially the top contenders. When the race came through the Vosges in 2005, Jan Ullrich tumbled into a field and sustained the injuries that likely constrained him in the first alpine stage two days later — and Michael Rasmussen made the long successful solo raid that moved him up into podium contention.

Only one of the five climbs on Friday is especially challenging. That’s the Cat. 1 Col du Platzerwasel, which is almost 9km long and has long stretches of 9- and 10-percent grades. It is also strategically placed, with 60km to go, and is followed by the Bannstein and Firstplan climbs, respectively 45km and 20km from the finish in Colmar.

This trio of steep uphills and long descents gives the climbers a real chance of gaining time; and everyone is wondering whether 2007 Tour champ Alberto Contador will risk making an attack — whether to test out the opposition or to make a real bid for glory. But with much tougher stages coming up in the Alps next week, Astana’s co-team leader may be content to follow the moves of the other contenders.

Don’t be surprised if Silence-Lotto’s Cadel Evans, Saxo Bank’s Andy or Fränk Schleck, or even Cervélo’s Carlos Sastre goes on the offensive Friday. If they do that will force Astana’s Contador, Lance Armstrong, Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden to chase, and maybe open up other opportunities for counterattacks. And it remains to be seen whether Garmin’s Christian Vande Velde and Brad Wiggins, Columbia-HTC’s Tony Martin or Liquigas’s Vincenzo Nibali are going to continue holding their top-10 GC positions.

The various moves are likely to neutralize each other, but that could change if the rainstorms arrive. The forecast calls for temperatures cooling to 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and for wind gusts of up to 50 mph during thunder activity.

Of course, breakaways will form in the first half of the stage, and look for dueling KoM leaders Egoi Martinez of Euskadi-Euskaltel and Franco Pellizotti of Liguigas to again make it into the front group before the Cat. 2 Col de la Schlucht.

Such a break could also feature contenders’ teammates such as Jens Voigt of Saxo Bank, David Millar of Garmin or Jurgen Van den Broeck of Silence. Putting these riders in an early move sometimes pays dividends when their team leaders bridge up on the later climbs.

But the greatest damage Friday is likely to be caused by crashes — especially if the rains do come.

Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at www.velogear.com