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John Wilcockson: Cav' can be beat, but he's still the favorite for Thursday's stage
While Mark Cavendish is getting all the glory of stage win after stage win at this 96th Tour de France, he always compliments his Columbia-HTC teammates, notably his lead-out man Mark Renshaw. But the Manxman, who looks like he’s on his way to at least six stage victories this year, also knows that he would never get the opportunity to use his explosive sprint if it weren’t for his less-heralded colleagues Bernhard Eisel of Austria and Bert Grabsch of Germany.
For kilometer after hilly kilometer on Wednesday, Eisel and Grabsch pulled the peloton at an average speed of 44 kph, keeping the day’s breakaway within close enough range to shoot down in the finale. The two Columbia veterans will be up for their task again Thursday, knowing that their British teammate will do his very best to add to his tally.
But what about the other teams? How can they thwart a Cavendish sweep of the remaining sprint-favorable stages?
The short answer is: It will be very difficult. Cervélo’s Thor Hushovd did his darnedest on Tuesday in Issoudun, but never had a chance. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar impressed a whole bunch of people on Wednesday in St. Fargeau by getting closer to Cav — and in a tremendously challenging uphill sprint where the taller, heavier Farrar was at a disadvantage.
The only time Farrar has defeated Cavendish was on a flat stage finish in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March, when the Columbia star launched his sprint too early into a head wind. Besides the uphill finish Wednesday, there was a head wind at the end of the stage; and Columbia adapted brilliantly to the challenge.
“Normally, we have two guys for the final kilometer,” Cavendish said in St. Fargeau, “But today we had four. And instead of my usual 11 (sprocket) I was in the 14.”
Michael Rogers, George Hincapie and Tony Martin all led the Columbia train before Renshaw took over where the gradient steepened about 400 meters from the line. But they weren’t the only team at the front.
Gerald Ciolek’s Milram teammates set a pace estimated at 70 kph through the final few kilometers, just ahead of the Columbia train, while Farrar’s Garmin colleagues followed just behind. “Because of the uphill finish,” Garmin team manager Jonathan Vaughters said, “we knew we would have to slingshot Tyler into the climb, and that’s what we did.”
Farrar still lost, but he was much closer to beating him than anyone has been at this Tour (other than at the previous uphill finish into Barcelona, where Hushovd improvised an improbable win). Now comes Thursday, and the 211.5km stage 12 through the hills of Burgundy and the Champagne country into the Vosges.
The day’s constant climbs and descents — including five Cat. 4 hills and one Cat. 3 — will make the task of Eisel and Grabsch even more difficult; and they will probably have to get more help from the AG2R-La Mondiale team of race leader Rinaldo Nocentini.
But for the stage to end in another field sprint, the Cervélo, Garmin and teams of the other sprinters will also have to contribute some horsepower. And even then, it’s not a guarantee. Maybe those teams would be better off getting riders into the day’s main breakaway, and gamble on getting a long-shot victory.
Another potential scenario may develop on the last categorized climb, 41km from the finish in Vittel. The final 800 meters of the Côte de Bourmont has an average of 11.1 percent. A surprise acceleration on that hill by teams such as Caisse d’Épargne or Liquigas might be enough to split the peloton and perhaps get rid of Cavendish and put Columbia on the defensive.
It’s going to be a long, fast stage because of the forecast tailwind that could favor such a move. If that doesn’t work, and there is another sprint, one of Columbia’s rivals will have to take advantage of a tricky finish into Vittel — with a number of sharp turns and chicanes, and another uphill sprint to the line.
But the favorite will again be Cavendish. “The biggest motivation is to win,” he said in St. Fargeau. “It’s just a case of knowing you have to do it.”
It probably will.
Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at www.velogear.com
