THIS WEEK IN PRO CYCLING »

Get the VeloNews Email Newsletter FREE

  Learn More | Archive
Home » Top Stories » Road » » Tour de France

Inside the Tour - Watch for surprises this weekend

Published: Jul. 10, 2009

Just five teams are still in contention to deliver the winner of this excruciatingly tense 96th Tour de France. And these five do not include Ag2r-La Mondiale, the French team of the new race leader Rinaldo Nocentini. He was far from being the strongest man in Friday’s successful long-shot breakaway and he will certainly fall back into the ranks on Saturday.

After this Tour’s first mountain stage, the Astana team of Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador is more than ever in charge. And the only ones left to challenge are Garmin-Slipstream, Columbia-HTC, Saxo Bank and Liquigas. And how they decide to challenge the apparent Astana hegemony will play out in this weekend’s two mountain stages through the Pyrenees.

For Garmin, Brad Wiggins is showing the type of astonishing athleticism that made him a multiple world and Olympic champion on the track, while Christian Vande Velde is fast approaching the best form of his life. Don’t be surprised if they play a key role in the yellow jersey stakes — not just over the next two days, but for the next two weeks.

Columbia ceded some of its strength on Friday, when Maxim Monfort and Kim Kirchen both dropped almost a minute to the other main challengers, leaving only Tour rookie Tony Martin in the virtual top 10.

Not surprisingly, Saxo Bank’s Fabian Cancellara lost the overall lead, while the Luxembourg brothers, Andy and Frank Schleck, showed they are only going to get stronger as this “strange” Tour progresses. And with the wily Bjarne Riis giving the tactical orders, expect the unexpected from Team Saxo Bank.

As for Italy’s Liquigas formation. Roman Kreuziger and Franco Pellizotti were not as strong as they should have been on the Arcalis climb, and so only their teammate Vincenzo Nibali is still in shouting distance of the lead. But given their “nothing to lose” attitude, aggressive moves from any of these three men could greatly affect the outcome of the Tour.

Besides these five teams, last year’s top two podium finishers Carlos Sastre and Cadel Evans will have to employ different tactics to move up the rankings. Evans was strong Friday, but his too-soon acceleration into the head wind on Arcalis, and a strange attack by his Silence-Lotto teammate Jurgen Van den Broeck, left the Aussie powerless to match Contador’s late dash to the finish line.

Sastre knew that Arcalis was not the type of climb on which he can make best use of his climbing style, and he remained hidden in the select 11-man group that finished 21 seconds behind Contador. It was, of course, the type of finish where Contador shines, where his unmatchable acceleration can defeat the men with more traditional climbing skills.

Contador’s showboating attack brought similar reactions from his top two teammates, Armstrong was “not surprised” and Leipheimer said he expected Alberto to “do something” to please his Spanish fans. But with the final climbs over the weekend respectively 44km and 7lkm from the stage finishes, Contador will be unable to make a repeat

So what can we expect to happen on Saturday? Stage 8 is almost 50km shorter than Friday’s six-hour marathon, but its three very different climbs all offer different opportunities for those teams seeking to challenge Astana.

The very long (22.6km) but steady (5.1 percent average grade) Port d’Envalira will likely be climbed en masse behind a tempo-setting Astana team because no teams wants to drop riders so early in the day and risk them being eliminated on time.

The Envalira is followed by 60km of mainly downhill roads, which will see the day’s main breakaway develop. It’s probable that this break will have greater significance than Friday’s. One, because the top five teams will likely put riders into the move; and two, because the day’s last two climbs will winnow out the weaker men.

Also, by putting key riders into the break (say Jens Voigt for Saxo Bank, Dave Zabriskie for Garmin, Michael Rogers for Columbia, Pellizotti for Liquigas and Haimar Zubeldia for Astana), those teams will have the chance of a team leader bridging out to the break (on the 11.4km, 5.5-pecent Col de Port or 12.4km, 7-percent Col d’Agnès) and putting pressure on Astana to chase.

If that’s the case then neither Saturday’s nor Sunday’s stages will be as benign as they appear.

Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at velogear.com.