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Arcalis will answer many questions

Published: Jul. 9, 2009

And it all comes down to Arcalis.

After months of speculation, mind-games and maneuvering, the much-anticipated showdown between Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador will finally unfold on the beyond-category steeps of the Arcalis summit in the principality of Andorra.

Or will it?

It’s all but impossible to read the tea leaves on what will happen in Friday’s 224km seventh stage.

With Astana choking the overall GC, with four riders in the top five and Armstrong just a whisker out of the yellow jersey, the team knows that all the pressure is on everyone else to make the first move.

“I think the others will have to attack before we do,” Armstrong said. “We’re in a position where we can wait and watch the others, Sastre, Evans, the Schlecks. I don’t know if we need to attack.”

The Arcalis summit is not one of the hardest climbs in the Pyrénées, and without any major climbs to soften up the bunch, a very large group could come in together. Some believe Fabian Cancellara (Saxo Bank) might be able to defend yellow.

Despite its relatively modest characteristics, Arcalis is fated to see one of the most interesting stages in recent Tour history.

I’ll try to be good. There are no guarantees.Lance Armstrong

A lot of questions should be answered on the 10.6km road. Namely, will Armstrong’s 37-year-old legs be strong enough to stay with the younger motors of his rivals? It’s been nearly four years since Armstrong competed at the highest level in a summit finish at the Tour.

“I’ll try to be good. There are no guarantees. It’s been awhile since I raced a big mountain stage, but I will be ready,” Armstrong said. “I’ll show up tomorrow and do the best I can and get to the top as fast as I can. Then we’ll see.”

Astana will try to play a tenuous balancing game, setting a pace high enough to drop Cancellara yet make it difficult for riders such as Evans (26th at 2:59) or Sastre (23rd at 2:44) to open up any dangerous gaps.

If the Schleck brothers also play it cautious and wait for riders further back in GC to take up the challenge, Armstrong could recapture the yellow jersey and potentially carry the leader’s jersey into the Alps.

The GC is still highly volatile and there are a half-dozen riders who many seem to be overlooking.

Despite crashing out of the Giro d’Italia, Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Slipstream) is eighth at 1:16 back, less than 1 minute behind Contador. Roman Kreuziger and Vincenzo Nibali are poised quietly in the top 15 and Columbia-HTC has Tony Martin and Maxime Monfort in the top 10.

These riders all are unknown factors and someone could take the upper hand to try to blow open the race.

Saxo Bank manager Bjarne Riis said all the pressure is on Sastre and Evans to move.

“They’ve lost time and they have to do something. They cannot wait until the Alps,” Riis said. “One thing is sure, if no one takes the initiative and everyone is waiting on the others, we will do it. We cannot just let Astana ride to the top unchallenged.”

With so many cards to play, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Astana put a rider like Haimar Zubeldia (15th at 1:41) or Yaroslav Popovych (16th at 1:45) into a move and then put even more weight on their rivals.

All eyes will be on Contador.

With only three summit finishes in this year’s Tour, the spindly Spanish climber will be tempted to fly away from the pack in a dramatic gesture that could catapult him into the yellow jersey, distance himself from his rivals and secure his position as Astana’s outright leader.

“Tomorrow, it’s a stage that’s pretty interesting. There are a lot of riders who have to try from afar. They are way back in the GC and they have to risk,” said Contador, third overall at 19 seconds back. “They have to try something. Everyone is asking who will attack, who won’t attack. We’ll have to see what happens.”

Contador’s destiny perhaps lies in the hands of others. With his team's domination the race, he won’t be obliged to attack. But if a rider like Andy Schleck (14th at 1:41) darts clear, Contador will have a free pass to punch the accelerator.

What will Armstrong do? He suggested Thursday that if Contador is on a great day, he might sit back and watch.

“I know Alberto wants to assert himself in the race. I don’t need a team meeting to tell me that,” Armstrong said. “I know he’s ready to go. If he does – and no one can go with him – I will just hang back and stay with the other leaders.”

With the yellow jersey waiting at the finish line, it’s hard to imagine Armstrong being a spectator for long if he has the legs.

Follow Andrew Hood’s twitter at www.twitter.com/eurohoody.