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John Wilcockson: A change of pace for the Tour

Published: Jul. 9, 2009
Wilcockson chats with Vande Velde about Friday's ride to Arcalis.
Wilcockson chats with Vande Velde about Friday's ride to Arcalis.
Photo: Casey B. Gibson

There have been very few “down” moments in this 96th Tour de France. All of the first six stages have thrown different challenges at the 180 starters, and it’s a testament to today’s breed of pro cyclists that only three of them have so far dropped out — and all due to crashes.

The challenges have included the most difficult opening time trial in race history; three flat stages where fierce wind was a common enemy; the most challenging team time trial for many years; and a hilly stage through Catalonia on Thursday that ended on the wet, greasy streets of Barcelona with a peloton spread-eagled into 10 separate groups by a half-dozen pileups.

And now comes three consecutive stages in the Pyrenees.

The switch from the plains to the mountains always catches out a number of contenders, and who knows which ones? Already, crashes and other setbacks have cast aside two pre-race favorites Denis Menchov (lying 64th on GC at 4:54) and Michael Rogers (159th at 14:46), while others are on the edge.

The virtual GC before Friday’s mountain stage to the Arcalis summit finish in Andorra (assuming that yellow jersey Fabian Cancellara will not stay with the top climbers) is this: 1. Lance Armstrong; 2. Alberto Contador, at 0:19; 3. Andreas Klöden, at 0:23; 4. Levi Leipheimer, at 0:31; 5. Tony Martin, at 0:52; 6. Christian Vande Velde, at 1:16; 7. Roman Kreuziger, at 1:31; 8. Vincenzo Nibali, at 1:36; 9. Andy Schleck, at 1:41; 10. Kim Kirchen, at 2:16.

As for last year’s top two finishers, Carlos Sastre and Cadel Evans, they are even farther back, respectively 2:44 and 2:59 behind Armstrong. But in this Tour of the unexpected, maybe Sastre and Evans will be the big stars of Arcalis and threaten the hegemony of Astana, which has an iron grip on the top four GC positions.

Evans showed his promising side on the climb up to the Olympic Stadium in Barcelona Thursday by taking a ninth-place finish among the sprinters and “punchers,” and he is only down three minutes because of the weakness of his Silence-Lotto teammates in Tuesday’s team time trial.

As for Sastre, his Cervélo team will be boosted by Thor Hushovd’s thunderous victory Thursday. And the Spanish climber has been lying low until now, convinced that he can repeat (or improve upon) the brilliant climbing form he had at the Giro d’Italia.

Also, look for a fighting performance by Garmin-Slipstream’s Vande Velde. Asked Thursday what he expected of himself in the mountains he replied, “I’ve got no fricking idea. I feel good, and I hope to surprise a few people.”

In his very first Tour, Columbia-HTC’s young German star, Martin, is an unknown quantity. He’s been tipped as a future Tour winner, and with one team leader (Rogers) out of contention because of his bad crash Thursday, and another (Kirchen) unsure of his climbing form, Martin may come though — much as another young German, Jan Ullrich, did 13 years ago.

But the chances are that the Astana Armada, headed by Armstrong, Contador, Klöden and Leipheimer, will be simply too strong and steamroll the mountains just as they did the team time trial. And almost certainly an Astana rider will be in yellow Friday night, probably Armstrong.

Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at velogear.com.