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It’s the wind (and the hill), stupid!
Anyone who follows American politics knows that in the build-up to the 1992 presidential elections, Arkansas governor Bill Clinton had the message “It’s the economy, stupid!” pinned to a wall in his campaign headquarters. By keeping that mantra in mind, Clinton came from behind to win the Democratic nomination, and then the Presidency. In these opening days of the 2008 Tour de France, the message to would-be winners is: “It’s the wind, stupid!”
Take Sunday’s stage 2 finish. Those riders who took the time to study their race bibles could see there was a 2km-long climb prior to the final 2km of roller-coaster streets in St. Brieuc — and the climb and the finish would be straight into the teeth of a blustery west wind. It was the wind that killed the chances of the four-man breakaway, which on the long climb was moving at almost half the speed of the chasing peloton — which was led by a Quick Step team hoping to lead out Gert Steegmans to a stage win. Their move would have been fine had it been a flat final 4km, but their efforts into the wind killed their chances for the eventual sprint finish.
Once the climb into town was over, you would have thought that the others would have learned the lesson of the wind, but a rider no less than world time trial champ Fabian Cancellara made a stupid mistake. His solo attack within sight of the final kilometer’s red kite would normally have been a smart move, but with the wind howling into his face it was a beginner’s error.
Another potential stage winner — he won on this same finish (but without the preceding climb) in 2004 — was Filippo Pozzato; and he made the same mistake. The curly-haired Italian chased after Cancellara and caught him with 500 meters to go. But that effort left him out of gas for the eventual sprint finish.
In explaining the attack to his team, Cancellara said, “I felt really strong today and I think I got a good-sized gap, but unfortunately for me the wind was in the wrong direction, so it turned out a lot harder than I’d hoped.”
Duh!
While Cancellara and Pozzato were committing stage-winning suicide, the Crédit Agricole and Columbia teams were keeping their respective sprinters, Thor Hushovd and Gerald Ciolek, out of the wind, awaiting the last swoosh down and then up for the final 300 meters to the line.
Crédit Agricole team manager Roger Legeay said, “The team worked super hard for Thor. Le Mevel and Pauriol on the flats, then Engoulvent, Bonnet and Renshaw in the finale. It’s a group that works well together.”
Legeay didn’t mention that Hushovd wasn’t missing his former lead-out man, New Zealand champ Julian Dean, now with Garmin-Chipotle — who got caught up in a crash 1.5km form Sunday’s finish and so couldn’t contest the sprint against his old boss. Replacing Dean at Crédit Agricole this year is Aussie Mark Renshaw, who kept Hushovd on his wheel until the Norwegian took off along the right-hand barriers with 200 meters to go and blindsided his remaining opponents.
Ciolek couldn’t hold Hushovd’s wheel, while Barloworld’s South African sprinter Robbie Hunter was just able to follow. At the same time, Columbia’s GC man Kim Kirchen, who had been following wheels the whole day, came from 20 riders back on the opposite side of the road with a jump similar to the one he made on the finishing climb Saturday. His well-timed effort was somewhat blunted by the head wind and so Kirchen had to settle for second place behind Hushovd — just as he did four years ago at a similar stage finish in Quimper.
The strong westerly winds are forecast to continue all day Monday, with a 70-percent chance of heavy thundershowers, on stage 3 from St. Malo to Nantes. These conditions could again disrupt many riders’ stage-winning plans. If teams such as CSC-Saxo Bank want to put pressure on the others, they should put down the hammer in the strong crosswinds across the flat terrain of the finale — especially when the course turns left onto the D17 road with 29km to go.
On that last stretch beside the Loire River, the riders will be pushed by a three-quarter tail wind, perfect conditions to split the peloton into a series of echelons. The run-in to the finish is flat and fast, with the wind at their backs. The sprinters’ teams that remain alert — and Columbia, Quick Step, Rabobank and Crédit Agricole have been the most impressive so far — should be able to line up a strong lead-out train.
Though it will be a back wind blowing the riders into Nantes, not a head wind slowing them down, the sprinters shouldn’t forget: “It’s the wind, stupid!”
This time, the powerful tail-wind conditions favor a long-distance effort, so expect Columbia’s Mark Cavendish, Quick Step’s Steegmans, Rabobank’s Oscar Freire and the free-lancing Robbie McEwen to be fighting for stage honors Monday night — unless Cancellara shocks everyone and gets his timing right this time.
