Looking out my office window at a cold rainy, day, with the promiseof snow falling on Colorado’s Front Range once the temperature drops thisevening, it’s all too clear that winter has arrived. Forget the near-perfect70-degree weather we had over the weekend, or the fact that winter doesn’t“officially” start until December 21st. From where I come from, snow andtemperatures in the low-20s means wintertime.It’s funny, as I was driving into work today, looking out at gray daythat appeared exactly as myfavorite Internet weather service had predicted, I couldn’t help butlaugh thinking of all the people I’ve heard say, “They [meaning anyoneinvolved with weather forecasting] never really know. They’re just guessing.They’re only right half the time.”Oh, really?That’s funny, because by my calculations they, [meaning those involvedwith weather forecasting] seem to get it right about 98-percent of thetime. Sunshine, wind, rain, snow, lightning, you name it — weather forecastingin the 21st century has been nailed down to a very precise science. Whichmakes me wonder: Who are these people that have experienced thisalleged erratic weather forecasting?They must be the same people I hear from time to time claiming they“never get sick.” That’s another of my favorites. Never get sick,eh? Super-human. Mmm hmmm. Some sort of genetic abnormality they must be,born with a super immune system impervious to the bacteria and virusesthat fell the rest of us from time to time. That must be nice, especiallyin the wintertime.Oh, and did anyone catch the story in the NewYork Times about New York mayor Michael Bloomberg’s plans to convertthe “Fresh Kills” Staten Island landfill into the site of mountain bikeand BMX competitions as part of the 2012 Summer Olympics?“Somewhere out there,” the piece reads, “beyond the rumbling trucks,chain-link fence and old tires poking up from the Fresh Kills muck, cityofficials tried yesterday to conjure a vision of Olympic mountain-bikersgoing for the gold atop the world's largest garbage dump.”Sweet. Just don’t crash. Talk about a good way to get sick — unless,of course, you never get sick.

Speaking of forecasting, how about a quick prediction at how the 2005domestic circuit might shape up? With three-time NRC individual standingswinner Chris Horner (Webcor Builders) finally getting his overdue opportunityto return to Europe — [insert high-pitched voice] “’Bout time, huh?” —the door is now open for other teams and individuals to step up.But who?Let’s back up a second and have a look at the 2004 rankings:2004 NRC FINAL POINTS STANDINGS
Men’s Individual Standings
1. Chris Horner, Webcor Builders 1887 points
2. Gord Fraser (Can), Health Net-Maxxis 1378
3. Jonas Carney, Jelly Belly-Aramark 1234
4. John Lieswyn, Health Net-Maxxis 1159
5. Fred Rodriguez, Acqua y Sapone-Caffe Modambo 1027
6. Scott Moninger, Health Net-Maxxis 988
7. Jason McCartney, Health Net-Maxxis 947
8. Adam Bergman, Jelly Belly-Aramark 937
9. Charles Dionne, Webcor Builders 930
10. David McCook, McGuire Pro Cycling 850
11. Alex Candelario, Jelly Belly-Aramark 780
12. Ben Brooks (Aus), Jelly Belly-Aramark 773
13. Ivan Dominguez (Cub), Colavita Olive Oil-Bolla Wines 753
14. Mark McCormack, Colavita Olive Oil-Bolla Wines 732
15. Juan Jose Haedo (Arg), Colavita Olive Oil-Bolla Wines 673
16. Tyler Farrar, Health Net-Maxxis 664
17. Lance Armstrong, U.S. Postal Service-Berry Floor 660
18. Will Frischkorn, Colavita Olive Oil-Bolla Wines 614
19. Evan Elken, Broadmark Capital 586
20. Francisco Ventoso (Sp), Prodir-Saunier Duval
For starters, reports that two-time San Francisco winner Charles Dionne— Horner’s teammate over the past two years — has signed with Saunier Duvalhave been greatly exaggerated. A recent conversation with Dionne revealedthat while the French-Canadian has indeed been in discussions with theSpanish squad that now employs Horner, Dionne has yet to sign a contract.

“There’s not much I can say right now,” Dionne said from his home inQuebec. “A lot of people have told me they read that I had signed withSaunier Duval. I have spoken with them quite a bit, and I spoke with acouple of teams in the U.S., but I don’t have a contract here in frontof me. As far as I know, I’m still available.”Dionne explained that his recent win in San Francisco prompted a fewcontract discussions with European teams during his visit to Verona forthe world championships, including AG2R, but once those teams learned theywere not to be included in the 2005 UCI ProTour, the negotiations ceased.For now, Dionne is playing the waiting game.“I’m still talking with Saunier Duval,” Dionne said. “[Horner] calledme last December 31 and asked me, ‘what are you doing? Do you want a job?’So I was not unemployed for one day. This year worked really good. I wastraining with him before San Francisco, and after, getting ready for world’s.We train kind of the same way. I’d like to be with him next year. We canwin a lot of races. He’s one of the best there is to read a race, so Idid learn quite a bit from him in the past two years. I’m just sick ofwaiting, calling Europe every other day. It’s getting a little late andI want to know where I’m going.”And should Dionne sign with Saunier Duval, he would be the fourth riderin the final 2004 NRC standings to drop off the domestic racing circuitnext year. (Fifth, actually, if you count Jason McCartney, who is leaving Health Net for Discovery and will likely split his time in between Europe and the U.S.)Horner, the overwhelming NRC winner over the past three years,will be racing in Europe, and third-placed Jonas Carney (Jelly Belly-Aramark)has retired. Also out of the picture for 2005 is 23-year-old Adam Bergman, who accepteda provisional suspension for recombinant human Erythropoietin (rEPO) backin late-July and has neither accepted a sanction nor contested the case.With USADA officials unable to speak on the case, claiming it remains “unresolved,”it appears Bergman may have simply walked away and left the sport behind.In the absence of Horner, Carney, Bergman, McCartney and possibly Dionne, who willstand out as the premier rider in North America next year? An educatedguess would point to Canadian road champ Gord Fraser (Health Net-Maxxis),who took second behind Horner in 2004. And with Fraser’s sprint nemesisIvan Dominguez apparently already signed with Health Net, along with sprintthreats Greg Henderson and Tyler Farrar, it’s a safe bet the green-and-blackHealth Net uniform will be appearing atop many a flatlander’s podium nextyear.But, as Horner has proven, the individual NRC point rankings tend tolean towards a stage racer, particularly one that arrives strong in theearly-season California swing. Rumors have Health Net acquiring the servicesof Horner’s teammate Justin England, the surprise climbing talent of 2004,as well as Jelly Belly’s Doug Ollerenshaw. And with the triple threat ofveterans John Lieswyn, Chris Wherry and Scott Moninger — Moninger finishedsixth in the NRC rankings this year — the team may just clean up on thestage race circuit as well.The biggest stage race threat to Health Net would appear to be NavigatorsInsurance, with GC contenders in Aussie Nathan O’Neill, Colombian CesarGrajales and Americans Chris Baldwin and Phil Zajicek. But, as in yearspast, Navigators tends to march to the beat of its own drum, and will againspend the spring in Europe, not showing up to race on American soil untilthe Tour de Georgia in April where it will most likely be outside of thereach of any NRC title. (Case in point: Not one Navigators rider brokethe top-20 NRC individual ranking in 2004, while the team finished sixthin team rankings.)Gone from the Navigators roster are all-around riders Burke Swindlehurstand Kiwi Glen Mitchell, both reportedly signed with the upstart TeamSeasilver. The San Diego-based squad is also reported to have signed sprintersDan Schmatz (from Health Net) and Pete Lopinto (from Ofoto-Lomabrdi Sports)to round out its squad.Also reportedly shed from Health Net are Brice Jones and 2001 U23 worldtime trial champion Danny Pate, both of whom are rumored to have signedwith Jelly Belly. Jelly Belly finished a distant second in the team standingsin 2004, and shouldn’t aspire to do better against the larger-budget HealthNet squad next year. But, should Pate return to the form that saw him ridingalongside Mario Cippolini at Saeco when he was a 21-year-old, Jelly Bellycould look to challenge for the individual honors.Adding another unknown element to the mix is the Athens, Georgia-based JitteryJoe’s-Kalahari squad, which has not only signed American standout TimJohnson but also recently announced the part-time addition of CanadianNORBA overall cross-country champion Geoff Kabush. The recently crownedCanadian national cyclo-cross champion will still race primarily for theMaxxis mountain bike team, but will take to the road for some key roadraces with “The Bean Team.”“I am really excited to get to do some racing with the Jittery Joe’sguys next season,” Kabush said. “They’re giving me the chance to participatein some big races like the Dodge Tour de Georgia and USPRO Championshipsthat I have been wanting to race for years.”While Kabush hasn’t yet proven himself on the road, his presence mightbe reason for the road-set to take notice. In his first committed seasonracing ‘cross, he’s proven to be one of the best in North America, andanyone that saw the 2000 Olympian on top of his game racing cross-countrythis year is well aware he was one of the stronger guys to throw a legover a bicycle in North America in 2004.But then again, what do I know? Maybe I’m just a misinformedjournalist. And you know what they say about reporters: “They never reallyknow. They’re just guessing. They’re only right half the time.”

A bit of TV news here from the resident multimedia dude. Outdoor LifeNetwork will host a 10-hour Lance-a-thon over Thanksgiving weekend, hostedby none other than Bob Roll, entitled “Lance's Historic Ride: Roll Backwith Bobke.” Or, as I prefer to call it, “[Insert your name here]’s HistoricRide on the Couch: Roll off your fat, bloated ass and go spend some timewith your damn family.”OLN has selected ten, hour-long cut-down stages of the 2004 Tour deFrance to air. Episodes 1 through 5 air on Wednesday, November 24 from9 p.m. through 2 a.m. Episodes 4 through 10 then air on Thursday, November25 from 4 p.m. through 11 p.m.

Episode 1 - Prologue
Episode 2 - Stage 4, Cambrai - Arras
Episode 3 - Stage 10, Limoges-Saint Flour
Episode 4 - Stage 12, Castelsarrasin - La Mongie
Episode 5 - Stage 13, Lannemezan - Plateau de Beille
Episode 6 - Stage 15, Valreas - Villard de Lans
Episode 7 - Stage 16, Bourg d' Oisans - L' Alpe d'Huez
Episode 8 - Stage 17, Bourg d'Oisans - Le Grand Bornard
Episode 9 - Stage 19, Besancon - Besancon
Episode 10 Stage 20, Montereau Fault Yonne - ParisAnd if you haven’t already, check out OLN’sonline poll regarding cycling programming.OLN is planning a weekly series featuring the best in the sport of roadcycling. You can make an impact in OLN's programming decisions by takingfive minutes to fill out this survey. As we all have been reminded, everyvote counts.Lastly, on Saturday, December 4, NBC will air its “Jeep World of AdventureSports” with footage from the Red Bull Rampage, held on the challengingfreeride terrain of the Kolob Reservoir Road in Virgin, Utah. Follow someof the best freeride mountain bikers on the planet as they compete fora $15,000 purse.Jeep World of Adventure Sports on NBC broadcast schedule:• December 4, 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. ET
• December 19, 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. ETFor more details on the Jeep World of Adventure Sports, please visitwww.WorldofAdventureSports.com