Immediately after finishing seventh at Ghent-Wevelgem on Wednesday, Johan Museeuw was angry with how the race had developed for his Quick Step-Davitamonteam, but he later said, “I again felt a little weakness [from my coldlast week], but in any case I will be ready for the Hell” — referring toParis-Roubaix’s moniker, the Hell of the North. In hindsight, Museeuw andhis Quick Step teammates Tom Boonen and Servais Knaven should havecontrolled the 12-strong break that emerged 40km from the finish of Ghent-Wevelgem,and protected each other in the strong head winds before making some attackspay off in the final kilometers.
That won’t happen this Sunday at Paris-Roubaix, which is not only arace that Museeuw has won three times, but it’s also 60km longer than Ghent-Wevelgemand its 49.1kmof cobblestone sections allow only the very strongest to survive. Everytime that Museeuwhas won this unique race (2002, 2000 and 1996), his team director hasbeen the white-haired Belgian “sorcerer” Patrick Lefévère— who also masterminded the Roubaix victories of Knaven (2001), AndreaTafi (1999) and Franco Ballerini (1998 and 1995).
As in all those races, Lefévère will again use his blitzkriegstrategy of putting as many of his men at the front as possible — and thatincludes Museeuw, Knaven, 22-year-old Boonen (who placed third on his Roubaixdebut last year when riding for U.S. Postal) and Frank Vandenbroucke (Belgium’senfant terrible who is back to the form that netted him seventhat Roubaix in 1999).
Expect the Quick Step men to put one of its top riders in the usualearly break, and then for Museeuw and colleagues to increase the tempoon two of the toughest sections of pavé (as the cobblestonesare called in northern France): the 2.5km sector at Haveluy, followed 8kmlater by the notorious 2.4km section through the Arenberg Forest, 95k fromthe finish. “The tactic is to make the others race after us,” Lefévèresaid this week. “It’s the race that will then decide the winner.”
So who will be the “others” that Lefévère is talking about?
Besides Quick Step’s Museeuw and Knaven, the only other previous racewinners due to toe the line in Compiègne are Italian veteran Tafiand Frenchman Frédéric Guesdon. Tafi, who now rides for Danishsquad CSC, is not on his strongest form and it’s possible that he willride for his Dutch teammate Tristan Hoffman, who finished fourth at Roubaixlast year and in 2000. As for Guesdon, the fdjeux.com rider is on the bestform of his career since winning this race six years ago; last Sunday hemade a solo attack at Flanders before coming home in sixth.
Besides these riders, the others to look out for on Sunday include PeterVan Petegem of Lotto-Domo; Telekom’s Erik Zabel; Saeco’s Dario Pieri; Cofidis’sJo Planckaert and Nico Mattan; Rabobank’s Marc Wauters; Crédit Agricole’sStuart O’Grady; Landbouwkrediet’s Tom Steels; AG2R’s Jaan Kirsipuu; andperhaps Vini Caldirola’s Romans Vainsteins and Fred Rodriguez.
Van Petegem confidently skipped Ghent-Wevelgem after his superb victoryat last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, and he says he wants to defend his WorldCup leader’s jersey with a win at Roubaix. The 33-year-old Belgian hasa devoted team and the right form, and he should be Museeuw’s toughestopponent on Sunday.
World No. 1 Zabel, who finished third at Roubaix in 2000, honed hisform by riding the GP Pino Cerami on Thursday this week. Unfortunately,he won’t have the help of teammate Steffen Wesemann, last year’s Roubaixrunner-up, who is sidelined by injuries.
Italy’s Pieri, however, who was another to make a solo attack at Flanders,has his experienced Italian teammate Stefano Zanini to help guide him throughRoubaix’s maze of cobbled farm tracks. Pieri has a great sprint finish,and this could come into play should the race Sunday be held in the expectedfine weather.
Another who packs a fast finish is Belgium’s Planckaert, who finishedsecond to Guesdon in 1997 (another year held in dry conditions). Planckaerthas the excellent support of compatriot Nico Mattan (fifth at Flanderslast week) and Frenchman Philippe Gaumont; a further incentive is the factthat their Cofidis team is headquartered near Roubaix.
Of the others mentioned above, Wauters is a consistently high placerat Roubaix, but doesn’t have a strong team for this race; O’Grady, theAustralian national champion, is on his best form after taking third atFlanders; Steels used to be part of the Museeuw gang, but has erratic formand lost Belgian teammate Ludo Dierckxsens to a broken collarbone on Wednesday;Kirsipuu has yet to prove himself over a 260km distance; and Vainsteinshas yet to retrieve the form that won him the world title in 2000.
As for Rodriguez, he is America’s best hope of a high placing. On hisrace debut last year, riding on Museeuw’s team, he was with his leaderjust before his winning solo move 38km from the finish — and Rodriguezfinished the race despite four crashes and riding the final 40km with abroken cleat. The Californian has ascendant form, as he showed by finishingwith the lead group at the Cerami race on Thursday, held in atrocious weather:hail, sleet and cold winds.
American fans have been used in recent years to seeing George Hincapielead the charge after Museeuw’s men, but chronic fatigue syndrome has stoppedthe U.S. Postal Service rider from contesting this year’s spring classics.In his absence, the U.S.-based team will rely on its veteran Russian riderViatcheslav Ekimov, 37, who came in an honorable eighth at last Sunday’sTour of Flanders, and his new Dutch teammate Max Van Heeswijk, who alsohas the ability to be in the winning break on Sunday.
Besides Rodriguez, the only Americans racing in Paris-Roubaix will bePostal’s Tony Cruz (a team rider for Ekimov) and the “virtual” ItalianGuido Trenti of Fassa Bortolo.
So who will win? Museeuw has the incentive to equal the record of fourvictories taken in the 1970s by the Belgian, Roger “Monsieur Paris-Roubaix”De Vlaeminck. His whole team will be trying to make that happen, but inthe event of clement conditions (the forecast calls for temperatures inthe high-50s, a 20-percent chance of rain and a favorable southeast wind),Museeuw may be too heavily marked. This could open the race to a late soloattack by either of his teammates, Boonen or Vandenbroucke. The other possiblescenario is a sprint finish between a dozen riders, which could favor Zabel,Pieri, O’Grady, Planckaert … or even Rodriguez.