I realize I have no power over how the peloton races each day, but at least for now, my wishes from yesterday were granted. I hoped riders would stop crashing and, as far as I know, there were no serious falls or injuries today. So, if I write on Velonews.com that I want Lance to win tomorrow’s time trial, you think that might come true, too?

Stage 8 was fast, the breakaway arrived ahead of the expected finish time for the stage, but Bastille Day didn’t go well for the French this year. There were three Frenchmen in the winning seven-man breakaway, but every man on today’s podium was Dutch.

Erik Dekker put in an impressive ride He attacked repeatedly in support of his younger teammate, was dropped from the break with 12km to go and fought his way back to take third. He is still finding the form which won him four Tour stages in the past two years and the 2001 World Cup title, but his intelligent, aggressive style hasn’t changed at all. Today’s stage winner, young Karsten Kroon, has a great mentor for a teammate at Rabobank.

Lance and the Postal Service went to the front of the today’s stage as the peloton approached the first circuit of Plouay. The circuit consisted of most of the 2000 World Championship course, and everyone knew there were narrow and twisting roads coming into those circuits. Lance did not want to risk being caught in or behind a crash again, so the team decided to sit on the front for a while. Many of the crashes in the past few days have been caused by rapid changes in speed and the corresponding accordion effect. The Postal Service kept the pace high and steady; and number of crashes tends to decrease any time you reduce the amount of braking and accelerating in the peloton.

Lance has a good chance of winning the time trials tomorrow. Talking with him last night, he said his legs are good and he has not had to dig deep yet during the road stages. We talked about Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano and the time trial he won over Lance at the Midi Libre too. Lance’s max sustainable power has increased approximately 20 watts since the end of May. That, coupled with the fact that Stage 9 is 10km longer than the time trial in Midi Libre, makes me confident Lance can win tomorrow’s stage and take the yellow jersey. If Galdeano rides extremely well and retains the jersey through the time trial, it will by a slim, and therefore manageable, margin.

No one is going to win the Tour de France tomorrow, but we will definitely see a major shuffling of the overall classification. By Monday evening, we will have a clear indication of which riders have legitimate chances to stand on the podium in Paris.