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Commentary: Big question marks await the 2007 Tour

Will the 2006 winner - whoever he might be - show up in '07?
Will the 2006 winner - whoever he might be - show up in '07?

Next year’s Tour de France doesn’t include any of the rumored features. No Paris-Roubaix cobbles. No team time trial. No Puy-de-Dôme. No climb over the unpaved Colle della Finestre in Italy. No Mont Ventoux.

Even so, the 2007 Tour route announced last Thursday in Paris does include a host of unexpected challenges that could produce a race as tumultuous as any Tour in the past decade.

But the bigger questions, particularly for American fans, are: (1) can the 2006 Tour-champion-in-limbo Floyd Landis win his appeal against a drugs violation, fully recover from his hip surgery, and find a team that will start the Tour? And (2) can the riders caught up in Operación Puerto, headed by multiple podium finishers Jan Ullrich and Ivan Basso, also find teams that will race the Tour?

Should Landis be successful on all three counts then he’ll be considered the top Tour favorite whether or not Ullrich, Basso and other “disgraced” stars emerge unscathed from the Puerto blood-doping scandal. What’s awaiting them all is a course that is similar to the one in 2003, when Lance Armstrong had to call on all of his considerable reserves and willpower to withstand the challenges of Joseba Beloki (who crashed out), Alexander Vinokourov and, ultimately, Ullrich.

Four years later, Vinokourov (and possibly Ullrich) could again be shooting for victory in a Tour that has six tough mountain stages, two 50km-plus individual time trials and far fewer “easy” stages than usual. The biggest change from the 2006 Tour is that the climbers have to wait until only stage 7, instead of stage 10, to reach the mountains.

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That means three fewer days for the sprinters to flex their muscles before they have to go into survival mode. And looking at the opening week, the only stages that are likely to end in mass sprints are stage 1 in Canterbury, England; stage 2 in Ghent, Belgium; stage 3 in Compiègne, France; and stage 6 in Bourg-en-Bresse. In other words, the 2007 Tour is likely to open up much sooner.

As for the mountain stages, all six either end at a summit (Tignes, Plateau-de-Beille and the Col d’Aubisque) or right after a major climb (Col de la Colombière before Le Grand Bornand, Col du Galibier before Briançon and Col de Peyresourde before Loudenvielle).

Besides making the climbs really count, the new race director Christian Prudhomme has pleased everyone by cutting out most of the long transfers. The only significant ones remaining are through the Channel Tunnel after the two English stages, and the transfer by TGV express train on the final day.

Here’s a detailed analysis of the course:Saturday, July 7: London Prologue TT (8km)
The prologue starts right in the center of London, goes past Downing Street (residence of Britain’s Prime Minister)
, the Houses of Parliament and Westminster Abbey to Buckingham Palace (residence of Queen Elizabeth II). The course then climbs Constitution Hill, passes through Wellington Arch and loops around The Serpentine, a lake in Hyde Park, before heading back downhill to the Victoria Monument and on to the finish on The Mall, with Buckingham Palace as the back drop. The locals will be cheering for British stars David Millar and Brad Wiggins, whose main challengers should include world TT champ Fabian Cancellara, Dave Zabriskie. Brad McGee, Thor Hushovd and George Hincapie.

Sunday, July 8: Stage 1, London—Canterbury (203km)
Stage 1 starts at the prologue finish line on The Mall and crisscrosses the Thames River on its way past St. Paul’s Cathedral and the Tower of London, before heading east out of the metropolis. Racing proper will start on crossing the prime meridian at Greenwich The rolling course passes the 1000-year-old Rochester Castle, and loops through the county of Kent via Tunbridge Wells — where tens of thousands of spectators watched the Tour pass by in 1994, the last time the race was in England — to Canterbury, where the finish is within sight of the historic cathedral. The Tour’s first field sprint is always tumultuous; maybe Tom Boonen will get it right this time.

Monday, July 9: Stage 2, Dunkirk—Ghent (167km)
This stage into Belgium and across the Flanders plain is likely to be flat and very fast, similar to the one from Calais to Antwerp won by homeboy Marc Wauters in 2002. The wind will be a factor, like it is in the Ghent-Wevelgem spring classic, so a breakaway led by a local like Nick Nuyens may succeed.

Tuesday, July 10: Stage 3, Waregem—Compiègne (236km)
The rumored inclusion of some Paris-Roubaix pavé on this stage that heads south out of Belgium to the French city of Compiègne, where Paris-Roubaix starts, was incorrect. But this longest stage of the Tour will pass through villages in the Hell of the North region, including Fontaine-aux—Bois, hometown of outgoing race director Jean-Marie Leblanc. Expect the peloton to regroup before a mass field sprint in Compiègne between men like Boonen, Alessandro Petacchi and Robbie McEwen.

Wednesday, July 11: Stage 4, Villers-Cotterêts—Joigny(190km)
This rolling stage through the Champagne and Brie regions to the northwestern edge of Burgundy could be similar to an early stage of Paris-Nice — without the freezing temperatures! A late breakaway could succeed, but expect another field sprint.

Thursday, July 12: Stage 5, Chablis—Autun (184km)
This should be the most decisive stage of the opening week on a course that traverses the Chablis wine region and Morvan hills on its way through Burgundy. The narrow back roads, with their short steep climbs and twisting descents, continue all the way to the finish in Autun, where classics riders like Alejandro Valverde and Paolo Bettini are favored to win.

Friday, July 13: Stage 6, Semur-en-Auxois—Bourg-en-Bresse (200km)
Despite some early hills through the Côte d’Or wine country this transitional stage closes with long, flat roads into Bourg-en-Bresse — where a mass sprint looks good for Petacchi or McEwen.

Saturday, July 14: Stage 7, Bourg-en-Bresse—Le Grand Bornand (197km)
Only a week into the race, this initial mountain stage will give a first indication of who is going to challenge for the yellow jersey — the finale includes the long, tougher northern side of the Cat. 1 Col de la Colombière. With its grade averaging almost 7 percent for 16km, the Colombière could be a perfect springboard for climbers like Cadel Evans and Levi Leipheimer to emerge, or Ivan Basso if he is around.

Sunday, July 15: Stage 8, Le Grand Bornand—Tignes (165km)
This second alpine stage has an unusual, and tough, ending with three long climbs: one of 20km (the two-part Cormet de Roseland, one of 15km (up to Hauteville on the Petit St. Bernard pass)
and a final one of18km (the first part of the ascent to Val d’Isère). The last two climbs aren’t particularly steep, but that was the case with the 2005 Tour’s summit finish at Pla de Beret, and that stage proved very decisive. Top contenders Valverde, Evans, Leipheimer, Alexander Vinokourov, and perhaps Basso and Jan Ullrich, have to show their best form on the final climb to Tignes.

Monday, July 16: Rest day at Tignes
Everyone will be thankful that the first rest day doesn’t include a long transfer.

Tuesday, July 17: Stage9, Val d’Isère—Briançon (161km)
This stage should be one of the Tour’s major climbing days, with the classic alpine climbs of the Iseran, Télégraphe and Galibier. The question will be whether the strongest riders at Tignes will be the best over the Galibier — which always catches out those riders who are not 100 percent.

Wednesday, July 18: Stage 10, Tallard—Marseille (229km)
With a start from just south of Gap and heading through Provence to the Mediterranean coast, this stage looks ripe for a long breakaway. And with a climb over the Col de la Gineste 10km from the finish, the sprinters’ teams may come up short.

Thursday, July 19: Stage 11, Marseille—Montpellier(180km)
One of the flattest courses of the whole Tour, this stage along the Mediterranean coast has “sprinter” written all over it, especially if the Mistral wind is blowing. McEwen won at Montpellier in 2005 after breakaways Chris Horner and Sylvain Chavanel were caught in the finishing straight.

Friday, July 20: Stage 12, Montpellier-Castres (179km)
A similar stage into Toulouse in 2003 went to the Spanish racer Juan Antonio Flecha, who made a late attack from a breakaway group. Look for a repeat.

Saturday, July 21: Stage 13, Albi-Albi TT (54km)
Similar to 2003, when Lance Armstrong suffered from dehydration, this long, hilly time trial on the edge of the Massif Central is likely to be contested in burning heat. Armstrong’s main challengers three years ago, Ullrich and Vinokourov, could again be vying for the yellow jersey with the likes of Leipheimer, Evans, Basso and perhaps Floyd Landis.

Sunday, July 22: Stage 14, Mazamet—Plateau de Beille (197km)
The only men to win Tour stages atop the Plateau de Beille have been Lance Armstrong (twice) and Marco Pantani, each of whom went on to win the Tour. Expect something similar this time, especially as an early selection will be made over the mighty Port de Pailhères climb (17km at 7.2 percent). All the big guns, including Valverde, Vinokourov, Evans and Leipheimer, should be in action on the 16km, 8-percent climb to the summit finish.

Monday, July 23: Foix-Loudenvielle (196km)
Not a mountaintop finish, but this stage features a series of difficult Pyrenean climbs, including one new to the Tour, the frightening Port de Balès. This is a very narrow, twisting 19km uphill, with the last 10km having an average grade of almost 10 percent. It precedes the Col de Peyresourde just before the last, fast downhill to the finish. Perfect terrain for another battle royal.

Tuesday, July 24: Rest day at Pau
After days of intense racing, everyone will be ready for a rest.

Wednesday, July 25: Stage 16, Orthez—Gourette (Aubisque) (218km)
Only four days from the Tour finish, this final stage with a summit finish could see a spectacular showdown. It includes the extremely steep climb over the Col de Larrau (14km at 8 percent) into Spain, the return to France over the Pierre St. Martin (14km at 5.2 percent) and the short, sharp Marie-Blanque (9km at 8 percent) before heading up the longest, steepest side of the mythic Col d’Aubisque (16km at 7 percent). Only the strongest will be left to contest the stage — and the Tour.

Thursday, July 26: Stage 17, Pau—Castelsarrasin (188km)
The rolling terrain of the Armagnac region is perfect for breakaways, especially when a weary peloton is reluctant to chase.

Friday, July 27: Stage 18, Cahors—Angoulême (210km)
The beautiful roads through the Dordogne area give this stage a similar feel to the one in which Armstrong took his famous solo victory at Limoges in the 1995 Tour, a few days after his Motorola teammate Fabio Casartelli died.

Saturday, July 28: Stage 19, Cognac—Angoulême Time Trial (55km)
This closing time trial, on up-and-down country roads through the world’s most famous brandy-producing region, could see another showdown to determine the Paris podium. Will Landis, Basso and Ullrich be there? Or can we expect a close fight between Valverde, Vinokourov, Evans and Leipheimer?

Sunday, July 29: Stage 20, Marcoussis-Paris (130km)
The traditional loop through the southern suburbs of the French capital precedes eight ultra-fast laps around the Champs-Élysées. A McEwen-Boonen-Hushovd sprint would be a perfect finish to what looks like being another unpredictable Tour.

Total distance: 3547km

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